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Daily Minimum Temperature Changes in March

Daily Minimum Temperature Changes in March

There is a general trend of increase in minimum temperature. Under the high scenario, this tends to increase after the 2050s. Probability bands are very similar up to the 2050s but the higher scenarios get wider and flatter after this. There is less variation than for the maximum temperatures. Spatially, little variation can be seen in minimum temperatures across all of England, for either scenario. March 2080 temperature curves are very slightly wider than for the March-May Spring season, hence the change in temperature of the coldest night is likely to be slightly higher; there is not a lot of difference between the scenarios suggesting central estimates of approx 1.5ºC warmer nights in either case.

Under the Low emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily maximum temperatures for March:

  • By the 2050s, will be between 2.5ºC and 4.3ºC. This would be between 0.6ºC and 2.4ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
  • By the 2080s, will be between 2.9ºC and 5.0ºC. This would be between 1.0ºC and 3.2ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.

Under the High emission scenario, there is a 67% chance that average daily maximum temperatures for March:

  • By the 2050s, will be between 2.9ºC and 5.0ºC. This would be between 1.0ºC and 3.1ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.
  • By the 2080s, will be between 3.5ºC and 6.7ºC. This would be between 1.6ºC and 4.8ºC warmer than they were in the 1970s.

Probability range

Probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2050s

March Daily Minimum temperatures in the 2050s

Probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2080s Probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios, showing Change temperatures in the 2080s (compared to 1961-90 period average)

March Daily Minimum temperatures in the 2080s

Time and space

Graph showing increase in temperature from the 2020s to the 2080s for the Low emission scenario. Probability bands are shown from 10%, through 50% to 90%. Graph showing increase in temperature from the 2020s to the 2080s for the High emission scenario. Probability bands are shown from 10%, through 50% to 90%.
Daily Minimum temperature for March through time under the Low emissions scenario Daily Minimum temperature for March through time under the High emissions scenario
Map of temperature, in the 2080s, at the 50% probability level, under the Low emission scenario Map of temperature, in the 2080s, at the 50% probability level, under the High emission scenario
Map of daily Minimum temperature for March, in the 2080s, under the Low emissions scenario (at 50% probability) Map of daily Minimum temperature for March, in the 2080s, under the High emissions scenario (at 50% probability)

Coldest night

Estimates for the highest and lowest temperatures are only available at a seasonal level. It is therefore sensible to check how the seasonal averages compare to the monthly averages.

Spring seasonal probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2080s Spring seasonal coldest day probability curves of low, medium and high scenarios in the 2080s

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Please notice that all of the maps and graphs are copyright © UK Climate Projections 2009

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